Design Methodology for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Team Coordination

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) systems, despite having no onboard human pilots, currently require extensive human involvement to accomplish successful mission operations. Further, successful operations also require extensive colalboration between mission stakeholders, including operators, mission commanders, and information consumers (e.g. ground troops relying on intelligence reports in their area). Existing UAV system interfaces provide little to no support for collaboration between remote operators or for operators to collaborate with information consumers. As reliance on UAVs continues to increase in military and civilian operations, this lack of support for collaboration will likely become a substantial limitation of existing UAV systems. In order to introduce effective collaboration support to UAV system interfaces, it is essential to understand, and be able to derive system design requirements that address, the necessary group interactions that occur in UAV task enviroments. However, few collaborative requirements analysis methods exist, and to our knowledge, no method exists that captures design requirements for collaborative decision making in complex, time-critical environments. This report describes the development of a new design requirements analysis method for deriving information and functional requirements that address the collaboration needs of UAV (and other complex task) operators, and the needs of stakeholders interacting with these operators. More specifically, theis method extends a recently developed requirements analysis method, called the Hybrid Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) method, which enables the generation of information and functional requirements for futuristic UAV system interfaces. The original Hybrid CTA method focused on deriving single user system interface requirements. This work extends this method by introducing analytic steps to identify task and decision-making dependencies between different UAV operations collaborators. This collaborative extension to the Hybrid CTA utilizes the notion of boundary objects, an analytic construct commonly used in the study of group work. Boundary objects are physical or information artifacts that cross the task boundaries between members of distinct groups. Identifying boundary objects in complex task operations help the analyst to identify task and decision-making dependencies between local and remote collaborators. Understanding these dependencies helps to identify information sharing requirements that the UAV system should support. This report describes the analytic steps of the collaborative extension, and provides background information on the original Hybrid CTA method and the boundary object construct. The report also describes a project in which the new design requirements method was used to revise a proposed set of UAV operator displays.Prepared For Boeing Phantom Work

Geometric vertex decomposition and liaison for toric ideals of graphs

The geometric vertex decomposability property for polynomial ideals is an ideal-theoretic generalization of the vertex decomposability property for simplicial complexes. Indeed, a homogeneous geometrically vertex decomposable ideal is radical and Cohen-Macaulay, and is in the Gorenstein liaison class of a complete intersection (glicci). In this paper, we initiate an investigation into when the toric ideal $I_G$ of a finite simple graph $G$ is geometrically vertex decomposable. We first show how geometric vertex decomposability behaves under tensor products, which allows us to restrict to connected graphs. We then describe a graph operation that preserves geometric vertex decomposability, thus allowing us to build many graphs whose corresponding toric ideals are geometrically vertex decomposable. Using work of Constantinescu and Gorla, we prove that toric ideals of bipartite graphs are geometrically vertex decomposable. We also propose a conjecture that all toric ideals of graphs with a square-free degeneration with respect to a lexicographic order are geometrically vertex decomposable. As evidence, we prove the conjecture in the case that the universal Gr\"obner basis of $I_G$ is a set of quadratic binomials. We also prove that some other families of graphs have the property that $I_G$ is glicci.Comment: 37 pages; in this revised version, Section 7 has been removed due to an error in the example found in previous version

Designing Decision and Collaboration Support Technology for Operators in Multi-UAV Operations Teams

Effective team collaboration and timely decision-making significantly influence the outcome of time-sensitive military operations. The increasing complexity introduced by the recent move towards network centric operations (NCO) in U.S. military operations provides additional challenges for efficient decision-making. Future operations will include co-located and distributed teams composed of operators from difference services, often at different global locations. Military operations which require extremely quick decisions, such as operations dealing with time-sensitive targets (TST) like improvised explosive devices (IEDs), are particularly challenging in NCO teaming environments. Operators in TST environments not only have to manage overwhelming amounts of target-related information, but also have the overhead of communicating and coordinating with co-located and distributed team members. Given the increasing trend for modern hostile forces to employ unconventional weapons such as IEDs and suicide bombs, the success of TST operations are becoming critical to current and future military operations. Providing TST teams with effective tools for communicating and coordinating their efforts is key to enabling their success.Prepared For Boeing, Phantom Work

A Genome-wide gene-expression analysis and database in transgenic mice during development of amyloid or tau pathology

We provide microarray data comparing genome-wide differential expression and pathology throughout life in four lines of "amyloid" transgenic mice (mutant human APP, PSEN1, or APP/PSEN1) and "TAU" transgenic mice (mutant human MAPT gene). Microarray data were validated by qPCR and by comparison to human studies, including genome-wide association study (GWAS) hits. Immune gene expression correlated tightly with plaques whereas synaptic genes correlated negatively with neurofibrillary tangles. Network analysis of immune gene modules revealed six hub genes in hippocampus of amyloid mice, four in common with cortex. The hippocampal network in TAU mice was similar except that Trem2 had hub status only in amyloid mice. The cortical network of TAU mice was entirely different with more hub genes and few in common with the other networks, suggesting reasons for specificity of cortical dysfunction in FTDP17. This Resource opens up many areas for investigation. All data are available and searchable at http://www.mouseac.org

Social contacts and the locations in which they occur as risk factors for influenza infection

The interaction of human social behaviour and transmission is an intriguing aspect of the life cycle of respiratory viral infections. Although age-specific mixing patterns are often assumed to be the key drivers of the age-specific heterogeneity in transmission, the association between social contacts and biologically confirmed infection has not previously been tested at the individual level. We administered a questionnaire to participants in a longitudinal cohort survey of influenza in which infection was defined by longitudinal paired serology. Using a variety of statistical approaches, we found overwhelming support for the inclusion of individual age in addition to contact variables when explaining odds of infection: the best model not including age explained only 15.7% of the deviance, whereas the best model with age explained 23.6%. However, within age groups, we did observe an association between contacts, locations and infection: median numbers of contacts (or locations) reported by those infected were higher than those from the uninfected group in every age group other than the youngest. Further, we found some support for the retention of location and contact variables in addition to age in our regression models, with excess odds of infection of approximately 10% per additional 10 contacts or one location. These results suggest that, although the relationship between age and incidence of respiratory infection at the level of the individual is not driven by self-reported social contacts, risk within an age group may be.published_or_final_versio

Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand.

Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create such real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We developed a real-time forecasting model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We created a practical computational infrastructure that generated multi-step predictions of dengue incidence in Thai provinces every two weeks throughout 2014. These predictions show mixed performance across provinces, out-performing seasonal baseline models in over half of provinces at a 1.5 month horizon. Additionally, to assess the degree to which delays in case reporting make long-range prediction a challenging task, we compared the performance of our real-time predictions with predictions made with fully reported data. This paper provides valuable lessons for the implementation of real-time predictions in the context of public health decision making

Multiyear Climate Variability and Dengue—El Niño Southern Oscillation, Weather, and Dengue Incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: A Longitudinal Data Analysis

Michael Johansson and colleagues use wavelet analysis to show that there is limited evidence for a multiyear relationship between climate and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand

Issues in the Pharmacokinetics of Trichloroethylene and Its Metabolites

Much progress has been made in understanding the complex pharmacokinetics of trichloroethylene (TCE). Qualitatively, it is clear that TCE is metabolized to multiple metabolites either locally or into systemic circulation. Many of these metabolites are thought to have toxicologic importance. In addition, efforts to develop physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have led to a better quantitative assessment of the dosimetry of TCE and several of its metabolites. As part of a mini-monograph on key issues in the health risk assessment of TCE, this article is a review of a number of the current scientific issues in TCE pharmacokinetics and recent PBPK modeling efforts with a focus on literature published since 2000. Particular attention is paid to factors affecting PBPK modeling for application to risk assessment. Recent TCE PBPK modeling efforts, coupled with methodologic advances in characterizing uncertainty and variability, suggest that rigorous application of PBPK modeling to TCE risk assessment appears feasible at least for TCE and its major oxidative metabolites trichloroacetic acid and trichloroethanol. However, a number of basic structural hypotheses such as enterohepatic recirculation, plasma binding, and flow- or diffusion-limited treatment of tissue distribution require additional evaluation and analysis. Moreover, there are a number of metabolites of potential toxicologic interest, such as chloral, dichloroacetic acid, and those derived from glutathione conjugation, for which reliable pharmacokinetic data is sparse because of analytical difficulties or low concentrations in systemic circulation. It will be a challenge to develop reliable dosimetry for such cases

Improving Mouse Models for Dementia. Are All the Effects in Tau Mouse Models Due to Overexpression?

Mouse models of Alzheimer's disease have commonly used transgenic overexpression of genes involved in production of amyloid β (APP and/or PSEN1/2) or Tau (MAPT) with mutations that result in familial forms of dementia. We discuss possible improvements that may create full models while avoiding the problems of overexpression and report synaptic results in APPKI models. We stress use of inappropriate controls without overexpression of the normal human protein and the mismatch between the learning deficits reported in mice with plaques but no tangles and the human condition. We focus on Tau overexpression, including new data that support previous reports of the grossly nonlinear relationship between Tau overexpression and neurofibrillary tangle load, with a twofold increase in Tau protein, resulting in a 100-fold increase in tangle density. These data also support the hypothesis that a high concentration of soluble Tau, in overexpression models, plays an important direct role in neurodegeneration, rather than only via aggregation. Finally, we hypothesize that there is an optimal concentration range over which Tau can bind to microtubules and a threshold beyond which much of the overexpressed protein is unable to bind. The excess thus causes toxicity in ways not necessarily related to the process in human dementias